EARTHQUAKE EXPOSURE MODEL

Summary

The Preliminary Earthquake Exposure Model is a suite of Python scripts that use authoritative hazard, structural, and vulnerability data in order to provide information to Emergency Managers immediately following a significant earthquake event. The model is initiated by an Event Pinger, which checks for new earthquake events every 5 minutes. Outputs include a Hazard Exposure Model as well as Demographics-enriched Census Boundaries and Hazard Data as Public Web Services.

Data Sources

Example input and output data can be viewed here and downloaded here.

Methodology

The Earthquake Exposure Model is a suite of Python scripts that use authoritative hazard, structural, and vulnerability data in order to provide  information to Emergency Managers immediately following a significant earthquake event. It is initiated by an Event Pinger, which checks for new earthquake events every 5 minutes.

The Event Pinger is a script that checks the USGS live feed every 5 minutes for new ShakeMaps. As soon as a new US event is posted, the Event Pinger downloads the GIS data and kicks off the Earthquake Exposure Model. It also checks for updates to previously posted ShakeMaps in case the Exposure Model needs to be re-run on modified GIS data.

Once initiated, the Earthquake Exposure Model splits the ShakeMap GIS files into Census boundary geographies at the county,  tract, and block level. The maximum MMI, PGV, and PGA experienced within each county, tract and block is saved as an attribute field to the Census boundary GIS data. Then, the ShakeMap GIS files are intersected with Residential Parcels, Mobile Homes, and other Critical Infrastructure data such as schools, hospitals, government buildings, roads, power lines, and more. Exposure is aggregated back up to the county-level and broken down by MMI.  Then, the demographics-enriched Census boundaries (county, tract, block) and ShakeMap GIS data (MMI, PGA, PGV) are pushed back out as Public Web Service.

Next, the ShakeMap GIS data and CDC’s National SVI Housing & Transportation rating is intersected and saved as an attribute field to the Residential Parcels.  A Hazard Exposure Map is generated by running a weighted density function on the parcel points. Parcels are weighted by hazard exposure (MMI) and structural vulnerability (SVI Housing & Transportation rating). The output of the weighted density function is similar to a heat map, where darker zones indicate areas of higher probability of damage.

The Hazard Exposure Map is also pushed out as a Public Web Service in order to aid Remote Sensing specialists in prioritizing AOI’s for tasking satellite and other imagery acquisitions over impacted areas.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use.

Contact

FEMA Mapping & Analysis Center

References

Jones, M. and Pitts, R. FEMA’s Earthquake Incident Journal: A Web-Based Data Integration and Decision Support Tool for Emergency Management. Abstract #NH33C-07 presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, 11-15 Dec 2017.